The trend of population migration Democratically dominated blue states to Republican-controlled red states is examined in the documentary Blue to Red: The Shifting of America airing Sunday, at 9 p.m. Eastern on Newsmax. Sometimes, you might get hit, Spencer said in a tone where it didnt sound like he was joking. Right-to-work laws are common in the red states and nonexistent in the blue, with the result that the latter have a much higher share of unionized workers than the former. Thats the provocative conclusion of Michael Podhorzer, a longtime political strategist for labor unions and the chair of the Analyst Institute, a collaborative of progressive groups that studies elections. The short answer is that Republicans win a lot of small towns, just as Republicans in presidential races win a lot of rural counties, making the vast majority of the U.S. political map red, by area. For all the stresses of the last four years, the vast majority of voters in each state who identify with the incumbents party are going to remain loyal to the incumbent. It's time for a new direction. With these three states shifted into those categories, the two nations are almost equal in eligible voting-age population, and the blue advantage in GDP roughly doubles, with the blue section contributing 48 percent and the red just 35 percent. Although Texas is on the cusp of turning blue, these same lawmakers banned abortion after about six weeks and restricted voting rights, culminating in possibly the most conservative legislative. The Georgia counties turning the state blue are growing. . And quickly. Among likely voters: in California, 91% of Democrats are for Newsom; in New York, 89% of Democrats are for Hochul; in Texas, 95% of Republicans are for Abbott; and, in Florida, 97% of Republicans are for DeSantis. To put the states seismic political weight into perspective, based on thecurrent electoral map, Democrats could loseArizona,Florida,Michigan,Ohio,Pennsylvaniaand Wisconsin and still take the White House if they won Texas. In 2018, Pritzker made easy work out of predecessor Bruce Rauners reelection bid, routing the one-term Republican by nearly 16 percentage points. CINCINNATI President-elect Joe Biden is the first person to win the presidency without carrying Ohio since 1960. All of the blue states have set a minimum wage higher than the federal level of $7.25, while only about one-third of the red-state residents live in places that have done so. The reputation was red. Georgia, once a strongly Republican state, has turned blue. This red-and-blue states scenario became a thing of conscience with George W. Bush, in 2000, who failed to win back states his father, and their GOP predecessors, had carried routinely. The states on this map voted for the same party for (at least) the four presidential elections prior to 2016. This strain of pessimism extends to quality of life in your community. Approximately one-third of all respondents in the four states stated that the quality of life in their community was worse or much worse now than two years ago. Election results left Republicans and conservatives cheering, but also made clear that a battle very much rages within the Democratic Party - the dominant party in New York State - Either way, Nevada is the exception that proves the rule: The three blue states with the lowest vaccination rates Arizona (45 percent), Nevada (44 percent) and Georgia (38 percent) are also the three blue states with the highest hospitalization rates, as well as three that Trump came closest to winning in 2020. The big blue states of California and New York actually lost people over the last decade, meaning more people moved out than moved in. Tuesday night, that Democratic progress seemed to halt. (626) 376-1105, Kenneth P. Miller, J.D., Ph.D. Rather than just protecting slavery within their borders, the Southern states sought to control federal policy to impose their vision across more of the nation, including, potentially, to the point of overriding the prohibitions against slavery in the free states. CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER, Chicago will continue to be important to the future of Citadel, as many of our colleagues have deep ties to Illinois, Griffin wrote in a letter to staff. A 13-year-old girl named Meilin turns into a giant red panda whenever she gets too excited. study At least 90% of voters from the opposing party in each state are sticking with their partys candidate. PublishedJanuary 10, 2022 at 5:35 AM CST, St. Louis Public Radio | . No Democratic candidate for governor has won more counties than Poshard since Dan Walker won the governorship in 1972. Her Democratic opponent and former Speaker of the House, Tina Kotek, is no longer in the lead. I would bet if you look across the Democrat Party and downstate Illinois youll find probably 50 to 60% of the precincts not even filled with committeemen, because that expectation that working in the rank-and-file of the party will result in some sort of help in getting a job isnt there anymore, he said. Thats the political home turf of state Sen. Darren Bailey, one of four declared GOP candidates aiming to unseat Pritzker next year. Whitmer, Nikki Haleys Official 2024 Bid Harshly Criticized by DNC. Moreover, the elections may give momentum to at least two of these governorsNewsom and DeSantisto sell their states competing visions to the nation by running for president in 2024. When Im talking to people, just about everyone acknowledges the fact life is not what it should be, and its certainly not what our founding fathers intended, he said. Meanwhile, many Republicans described concerns about politics and policy, while very few Democrats did. Biden's victory, and the matter in which he won, left many political pundits. The rest were either undecided or preferred someone other than the top three candidates. Receive breaking news and original analysis - sent right to your inbox. All of the blue states have expanded access to Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act, while about 60 percent of the total red-nation population lives in states that have refused to do so. Virginia remains a blue state because, all things being equal, in statewide federal races, the Democratic nominee starts off with a clear advantage. $10.70. As measured on fronts including the January 6 insurrection, the procession of Republican 2020 election deniers running for offices that would provide them with control over the 2024 electoral machinery, and the systematic advance of a Republican agenda by the Supreme Court, the underlying political question of the 2020s remains whether majority ruleand democracy as weve known itcan survive this offensive. California lost a seat for the first time in its history. See all customer images . California and New York have become national catalysts for progressive policies, while Texas and Florida have become the most powerful advocates of conservative alternatives. Poshard said gun rights arguments and anti-abortion sentiment are issues that drown out most everything else in the region, including workplace-related gains that Democratic-favoring unions have long championed. In a private newsletter that he writes for a small group of activists, Podhorzer recently laid out a detailed case for thinking of the two blocs as fundamentally different nations uneasily sharing the same geographic space. And yet, in the states more recent political past, Democrats are the ones with the upper hand as blue Illinois gets bluer, and red Illinois gets redder and angrier that they dont have a voice statewide. population, states, documentary, blue, red. But because I wouldnt say anything about guns and abortion, oh, they was deathly against me, Spencer said. Independents are closely divided between the two. Pritzkers count greatly exceeded the four counties Democrat Pat Quinn won in his 2010 election and the lone county that lined up with him in his unsuccessful 2014 reelection. Wednesday, 27 July 2022 11:39 AM EDT. During the U.S. Presidential Election in 2000, journalist Tim Russert used the terms "red state" and "blue state" based on the colored maps used during his televised coverage of the election. One large medical recruiting firm said it recently had 20 obstetrician-gynecologists turn down positions in red states because of abortion laws. Data for 2022 are likely to show "massively more divergence", predicts Mr Warshaw. Mediocre turnout on Tuesday may be one of the biggest reasons that Democrats didnt see a stronger advantage come from Texas recent population explosion, said Renee Cross, senior director of the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston. Among the top 10 large areas with the highest inbound move rates, not only was their economy able to recover all the jobs that were lost at the beginning of the pandemic but there are about 5% on average more jobs now than in March 2020 in these areas, the report read. Take Californiaand Mississippi. Most of the states are likely to stay red or blue after Tuesday, but a few key races are seen as toss-ups. Their governorsGavin Newsom (D-CA), Kathy Hochul (D-NY), Greg Abbott (R-TX), and Ron DeSantis (R-FL)have come to embody these states highly partisan models. This survey differs from others by including in the field Governor Hochul of New York and Governor Abbott of Texasas well as Californias Governor Newsom, whom most early polls have excluded. That's devastating for blue states, and could soon tip the balance of power in Congress in 2022. Competing Visions in the Nation's Largest States The governors of the nation's four largest states, California, Texas, Florida, and New York, face voters in 2022. Democrats went from winning 43 counties in the 1998 governors race down to a dismal one county in the 2014 race, in which Democratic incumbent Gov. Some of the more notable states on the list are California, New York, Illinois, and Washington, DC. Texas 2022 Elections Republican victories show Texas is still far from turning blue Republicans continued their 28-year dominance of statewide races but fell short of their hopes for a South. The MAGA movement is not stopping at the borders of the states it already controls, Podhorzer writes. The picture is a bit clearer for the Republicans. In 2018, during his one and only run for the Illinois House, Bailey won with 76% of the vote. Of note, the top 10 states with the greatest number of new residents are ones that typically lean right (although Arizona and North Carolina both have Democratic governors). In Texas and Florida, independents are marginally adding to the incumbents lead, whereas in California and New York, disapproval from independents is not enough to overcome the Democrats large numerical advantages. Nov. 9, 202212 AM Central. Yet, some respondents may be taking more concrete steps toward actually leaving. Our house was steeped in the melodic hum of Spanish, Cantoneseand English, hushed only by the sound of the front door slamming as my parents shuffled out for work. Follow him@davemckinney. Almost all of the red states have also passed stand your ground laws backed by the National Rifle Association, which provide a legal defense for those who use weapons against a perceived threat, while none of the blue states have done so. Bailey was once escorted out of the Illinois House because he refused for a day to adhere to the chambers mandate that members and staff wear masks to reduce the spread of COVID-19. It goes hand in hand with the kinds of political polarization and partisanship that were seeing, said journalist Lou Jacobson, senior correspondent for PolitiFact, the nonpartisan fact-checking organization. Drazan has thus far focused her campaign on issues such as public safety. U.S. Rep. Mayra Flores, a Republican who lost the South Texas seat she had won in a special election earlier this year, blamed apathy by conservative voters as well as independents who had heavily leaned Republican in Texas polling. In this environment, it should not be surprising that large numbers of respondents in all four states (about one-third in CA, NY, and FL; nearly one-half in TX) described themselves as worse or much worse off financially than they were two years ago. AT&T DirecTV Censorship of Newsmax Continues, See More Here, Report: Texas, Arizona, Florida Posted Biggest Population Gains in 2021, Red States Grow as Blue States Shrink: Census, Air Force Fires Nuclear Base Leaders After Failed Inspection, Consumer Product Safety Commission Wants Information on Gas Stove Hazards. Population exit has become a prominent issue in blue states, including California and New York, which for years have experienced negative net migration. But it does mean that the 2020s may bring the greatest threats to the countrys basic stability since those dark and tumultuous years. Importantly, the majority of Texans oppose recent conservative priorities. Mostly, Republicans do well in rural areas, Democrats do well in the cities, and the suburbs are mixed but are more Republican. Similarly, 56% of Republicans in Texas and 48% of Republicans in Florida report that they are worse off or much worse off now than two years ago, yet nearly all Republicans in those states will line up to reelect Governors Abbott and DeSantis. The conflict between the blue and red states and their representatives has been building for some time, and may reach a climax in our not-too-distant political future. Nationally and in Illinois, thats concerning, Jacobson said. The share of kids in poverty is more than 20 percent lower in the blue section than red, and the share of working households with incomes below the poverty line is nearly 40 percent lower. The NAR noted in its report that many of the areas that saw the most people relocating featured economies where the labor market had bounded back since the early days of the coronavirus pandemic, which featured state and local governments across the United States shutting down or restricting business operations in an effort to quell the virus. Photo by Alyssa Stone/Northeastern University and Photo by Matthew Modoono/Northeastern University. Voters returned GOP incumbents to their jobs at the top of the ticket and handed the states dominant party its 14th consecutive sweep of statewide offices. Then, with support from the GOP-appointed majority on the Supreme Court, Republicans could impose red-state values and programs nationwide, even if most Americans oppose them. "Florida is a competitive battleground state in 2022," Executive Director Noam Lee said in a statement . The states shifting demographics had given Democrats hope, as margins at the top of the ticket have shrunk in recent years. Turning Red: Directed by Domee Shi. The states rapid diversification and leftward lurch in politics are emblematic of broader trends across the nation, which could end up looking like Texas sooner rather than later. I had a real good construction business going, but I seen a year ago that those days were over because Im a Democrat. Republicans havent led the state of Oregon since 1982. The path all four governors are taking to reelection is paved with partisanship. The governor is proud of the investments his administration has made in rural and downstate communities and will continue to work tirelessly to serve all of Illinois.. Florida saw the biggest influx of new residents, some 319,000 people, a total population increase of nearly 2%, according to an Our initial question was framed as interest in leaving, without necessarily having it be a real option. Assisted by student research assistants at the Rose Institute of State and Local Government, we divided responses into three categories: economic reasons, political and policy reasons, and personal reasons. I was campaigning on jobs, education, broadband internet, infrastructure, all kinds of things that would help this area. In these. We're splitting into a red and blue country. But hes warning that the pressure on the countrys fundamental cohesion is likely to continue ratcheting up in the 2020s. The biggest news is that the exodus from progressive-led states hasn't slowed . Gun deaths are almost twice as high per capita in the red places as in the blue, as is the maternal mortality rate. Texas40 electoral votes are on the table. Financial supporters play no role in the Tribune's journalism. He identified Illinois as among 14 states with the strongest county-by-county Democratic declines during the five presidential cycles after 2000. Further highlighting this polarization: While relatively competitive overall, only four states (FL, NC, OH, VA) were decided by less than 5% popular vote margin in the 2012 presidential election. Even if Republicans arent seeing their map expanding into new territory like South Texas, they can still clearly count on rural voters to hold the line against waves of new and potentially liberal voters moving into Texas major cities, said Landry, the West Texas college professor. Period.. And downstate voters know it. More results can be found at www.roseinstitute.org. Texas has started taking public donations to defray some of the $7 million it has spent on buses since April. Those are things that really get into the fabric and the mindset of people in the rural areas. One of the ladies that I work with up at Walmart, I talked to her last week and I asked her, Hey, did you ever get your coronavirus shot yet? Oh, no. Several companies and well-known figures have made highly publicized moves from states like New York and California to destinations like Florida and Texas. The Democratic states, comprising 242 electoral votes had all actually gone blue since 1992 - six straight elections. This book examines how socio-cultural, demographic . In fact, all the Democratic states here, comprising 242 electoral votes, had gone blue since at least 1992. Using new survey data, this report highlights four main findings. Counties dont vote. One Florida resident wrote: Hurricanes and heat plus critters. Another: too hot. Democrats in Texas and Florida had additional reasons, frequently mentioning politics and policy concerns. (Some red-state Republicans are even distantly echoing Calhoun in promising to nullifythat is, defyfederal laws with which they disagree.) Maps: What's the Real Red and Blue Balance of State Government? This is not a metaphor; it is a geographic and historical reality., To Podhorzer, the growing divisions between red and blue states represent a reversion to the lines of separation through much of the nations history. My dad would often come home from work shortly before my mom headed out for her late-night shift as a nurse. OREGON POLL: @ChristineDrazan 36%@TinaKotek 34%@senbetsyjohnson 19%9% undecidedhttps://t.co/Q4dZtymPg7 pic.twitter.com/NB2cIsLUfm, Emerson College Polling (@EmersonPolling) October 4, 2022. In terms of sheer volume, the Sunshine State was followed by Texas, the Carolinas, Tennessee, Georgia, Arizona, and Idaho. One-party hegemony in these states also allows their governors to build robust policy records they can wield when stepping onto the national stage. But the gubernatorial candidate also accuses Democratic policies for contributing to homelessness in the past, especially in Portland and other major cities. Since that election, the media have . [email protected] re: Red states that will eventually turn Blue? And Donald Trump won the state by less than 6 percentage points in 2020. In Abbotts first bid for governor in 2014, he won by more than 20 percentage points. In 2018, he won his second term by just over 13. Those things are what got a lot of those voters excited, Landry said. While interesting for a variety of reasons, match-ups including Biden or Trump do not cause respondents to consider the possibility of a governor introducing a blue or red state model to the nation as a whole. #orpol pic.twitter.com/Tdw0acrwj0, Christine Drazan (@ChristineDrazan) August 9, 2022. My work as a community organizer in Texas, a soldierand a graduate student at Harvard are just as much their achievements as they are mine. Deep in the heart of Texas somewhere between the starry desert nights of El Paso and the blooming sage of Beaumont is the steady beat of profound contradictions. Increasingly, Americans are also choosing to move to places that align with their political views. During the 1980s, the colors were reversed, and red states were democratic while blue states were republican. Claremont McKenna College In 2018, with Beto ORourke, Democratic performance improved by13.9 percentage points from the previous midterm. There was a lot of posturing by some Republicans that theyd hit the trifecta in South Texas by taking all three seats, so Democrats have felt maybe a tiny bit of relief at that, Cross said. The country is bifurcating, Bolling says in the film. Although Texas is on the cusp of turning blue, these same lawmakers banned abortion after about six weeks and restricted voting rights, culminating in possibly the most conservative legislative session in a generation. Anything about guns and abortion, oh, they was deathly against,! Work out of predecessor Bruce Rauners reelection bid, routing the one-term Republican by 16! 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